Fuzzy Rule-Based System as a Method of Modeling for Estimation Quality of the Vardar River

Abstract

The paper proposes the use of a fuzzy rule-based system to evaluate the quality of the Vardar river for irrigation purposes, based on the presence of two types of pollutants (bacteriological and chemical) and the contaminated area in the Skopje-Polog region. The input variables of the fuzzy inference system are the quantity of the pollutants detected and the percentage of the contaminated area, while the output variable is the estimated quality of the river Vardar for irrigation. The results of the system are expressed as a fuzzy set, allowing for uncertainty and vagueness in the assessment of the river water quality. The proposed method seeks to provide a more comprehensive and accurate evaluation of the Vardar river water quality for irrigation. Used data obtained from the Institute of Public Health of the Republic of North Macedonia for 2022. The paper presents a fuzzy rule-based system to estimate the levels of chemicals and bacteria in the Vardar River, which is still used for irrigation. The method employs fuzzy inference and defuzzification to generate the output. The estimated values of pollutants in the river have not been measured by either the Ministry of the Environment or any non-governmental organizations. The proposed model provides a valuable basis for simulating future concentrations of these substances in the water for the years to come, making a significant contribution to the understanding of the Vardar River's water quality for irrigation purposes.