Influence of Environmental Variables on Distribution of Wild Goat (Capra Aegagrus), in Iraq by Maxent

  • Mariwan Rahim Environment Directorate of Sulaimani, Ashti Quarter, As Sulaymaniyah 46001, Iraq
Keywords: Wild goat, Maxent model, and Environmental Variables.

Abstract

Wild goat is belonging to bovidae family, genus with species of Capra aegagrus. Wild goats are present in different areas of the Zagros range from north-eastern of Iraq for example the large population is located in the Barzan area, then in Qara Dagh Mountains, and Peramagroon Mountains. Maximum Entropy (Maxent) is a presence-only modeling method with a confirmed attested potential to predict wildlife distribution. The aim of this study is attempted to establish the influences of environmental variables on the distribution of Wild goat (Capra aegagrus) in Iraq by using the maximum entropy method. A total of 13 Wild goat point localities from the whole Iraq were used as a presence data point as main in put to build the species distribution model. The Maxent model predicted potential suitable habitats for Wild goat (Capra aegagrus) with performed of high success rates (AUC Training data=0.973). The environmental variables such as, land cover, altitude, precipitation, and temperature has impact on distribution of wild goat in Iraq. The results of this study can be useful as a tool in executing conservation program and wildlife management plans in the future.

References

[1] P. Weinberg, Jdeidi, T., Masseti, M., Nader, I., de Smet, K. & Cuzin, F., "Capra aegagrus: IUCN 2013. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2013.1.Internet: http://www.iucnredlist.org," 2008. [Downloaded on 05 April 2016].
[2] Omar F. Al-Sheikhly, Mukhtar K. Haba, Filippo Barbanera, Gábor csorba, and d. L. Harrison, "checklist of the Mammals of Iraq (chordata- Mammalia)." Bonn zoological Bulletin vol. 64, pp. 33-58, July 2015.
[3] S. J. Phillips, R. P. Anderson, and R. E. Schapire, "Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions," Ecological Modelling, vol. 190, pp. 231-259, 2006.
[4] R. G. Pearson, C. J. Raxworthy, M. Nakamura, and A. Townsend Peterson, "Original article: Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar," Journal of Biogeography, vol. 34, pp. 102-117, 2007.
[5] J. Cassinello, P. Acevedo, and J. Hortal, "Prospects for population expansion of the exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia; Bovidae) in the Iberian Peninsula: clues from habitat suitability modelling," Diversity and Distributions, vol. 12, pp. 666-678, 2006.
[6] P. Acevedo, J. Cassinello, J. Hortal, and C. Gortázar, "Invasive exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia) as a major threat to native Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica): a habitat suitability model approach," Diversity and Distributions, vol. 13, pp. 587-597, 2007.
[7] M. Morovati, M. Karami, and M. Kaboli, "Desirable Areas and Effective Environmental Factors of Wild goat Habitat (Capra aegagrus)," International Journal of Environmental Research, vol. 8, pp. 1031-1040, 2014.
[8] Maps of World. (2013, 6 July). Available: http://www.mapsofworld.com/iraq/iraq-location-map.html [Downloaded on 05 April 2016].
[9] FAO, "Country Pasture/Forage Resource Profiles Iraq," Rome, Italy.2011.
[10] R. T. Hatt, "The mammals of Iraq," 1959.
[11] M. I. Evans, Important bird areas in the Middle East vol. 2: Birdlife international Cambridge, UK, 1994.
[12] Hana A. Raza, Nabeel Abdulhasan, Korsh Ararat, Mariwan Qadir, and a. L. Ali, "Conserving Wild Goats Capra aegagrus at Qara Dagh and Peramagroon Mountains, Iraq," 2012.
[13] H. A. Raza, "On Conserving the Wild Goat Capra aegagrus in Peramagroon and Qara Dagh Mountains, Iraq Conservation Leadership Programme," Wildlife Middle East, vol. 6, p. 5, March 2013.
[14] Hana A. Raza, Saman A. Ahmad, Nabeel A. Hassan, Korsh Ararat, Mariwan, Qadir, et al., "First photographic record of the Persian leopard in Kurdistan, northern Iraq," CAT News, vol. 56, pp. 34-35, 2012.
[15] E. A. Desktop, "Release 10," Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute, 2011.
[16] R. J. Hijmans, S. E. Cameron, J. L. Parra, P. G. Jones, and A. Jarvis, "Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 25, pp. 1965-1978, 2005.
[17] R. J. Hijmans and C. H. Graham, "The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions," Global Change Biology, vol. 12, pp. 2272-2281, 2006.
[18] ESA. (2009, 5 july). Globcover. Available: http://due.esrin.esa.int/globcover/ [Downloaded on 05 April 2016].
[19] S. J. Phillips, M. Dudík, and R. E. Schapire, "A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling," in Proceedings of the twenty-first international conference on Machine learning, p. 83, 2004
[20] R. P Anderson, M. Dudík, S. Ferrier, A. Guisan, R. J Hijmans, F. Huettmann, et al., "Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data," Ecography, vol. 29, pp. 129-151 2006.
[21] D. F. Ward, "Modelling the potential geographic distribution of invasive ant species in New Zealand," Biological Invasions, vol. 9, pp. 723-735, 2007.
[22] J. A. Swets, "Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems," Science, vol. 240, pp. 1285-1293, 1988.
[23] E. R. DeLong, D. M. DeLong, and D. L. Clarke-Pearson, "Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach," Biometrics, pp. 837-845, 1988.
[24] A. H. Fielding and J. F. Bell, "A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models," Environmental conservation, vol. 24, pp. 38-49, 1997.
[25] B. Hoffmann, H. Wiesner, J. Maltzan, R. Mustefa, M. Eschbaumer, F. A. Arif, et al., "Fatalities in wild goats in Kurdistan associated with Peste des Petits Ruminants virus," Transbound Emerg Dis, vol. 59, pp. 173-6, Apr 2012.
Published
2016-04-06
Section
Articles