Prediction Markets and Megaprojects

  • Max Werner Doctoral student / Helmut-Schmidt-University, Wendenstraße 503, Hamburg and 20537, Germany
  • Klaus Eissing MBA student, Schenefelder Landstrasse 87, Hamburg and 22589, Germany
Keywords: Megaprojects, prediction markets, project management, internal control, project controlling, megaproject paradox.


This short essay estimates the suitability of prediction markets to solve fundamental megaproject management issues. The underlying analysis was designed using relevant and state of the art literature in the respective field. First, megaprojects were defined in general, clarifying the subject of the study. Concurrently the research setup was explained to outline the scope of the essay. The following central analysis section specifies multiple megaproject management issues and describes the most common ones (cost overruns and project delays) separately. The last content section applies state of the art prediction market insights on the previously specified megaproject management issues. Finally, this essay reveals a fundamental promise that prediction markets are likely to be the cure for some of the megaproject management issues specified.


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