Modeling of Environmental Dynamics Using the SpaCelle Software in the Department of Alibori in Benin (West Africa)
The natural resources are under heavy anthropogenic pressures caused by an ever increasing demand for the satisfaction of the needs of the population. The aim of this study was to assess future environmental changes taking into account the current land-use dynamics in the Alibori Department. The establishment and the diachronic analysis of the dynamics of the occupation of the grounds, the characterization of the vegetation and the environment of the classified forests from phytoecological surveys, socio-economic surveys, impact assessment methods and predictive modeling carried out under SpaCelle were the main methods used. The assessment of land-use dynamics revealed that the surfaces of woodlands and woodland savannas increased from 35.43 % to 7.29 km2 from 1990 to 2015. On the other hand, the areas of mosaics of crops and fallows passed from 13.36% to 35.22% from 1990 to 2015. The population growth and the agricultural practices that are not very respectful of the environment were the main factors in this degradation of the vegetation cover. The predictive modeling carried out under SpaCelle from the development of the scenarios makes it possible to deduce that with the scenario of "environmental stability", the area occupied by mosaics of crops and fallows will be 56.56 % against 74.36 % for the scenario of "tendency towards catastrophe" in 2050.
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