Numerical Study of Kermack-Mckendrik SIR Model to Predict the Outbreak of Ebola Virus Diseases Using Euler and Fourth Order Runge-Kutta Methods

Md. Tareque Hossain, Md. Musa Miah, Md. Babul Hossain

Abstract


Mathematical Modeling has emerged as a vital tool for understanding the dynamics of the spread of many infectious diseases, one amongst is Ebola virus. The main focus of this paper is to model mathematically the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus. For this purpose we tend to use basic SIR model of Ebola Virus to predict the outbreak of the diseases. As we cannot fully solve the 3 basic equations of SIR model with a certain formula solution, we introduce Euler and fourth-order Runge-Kutta methods (RK4). These two proposed strategies are quite efficient and practically well suited for solving initial value problem (IVP) for ordinary differential equations (ODE).We discuss the numerical comparisons between Euler method and Runge-Kutta methods and also discuss regarding their performances with the actual data. The population that we used for this model had roughly a similar number of individuals as the number was living in Republic of Liberia during 2014.


Keywords


Ebola; Outbreak; Evolution; Mathematical Modeling.

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References


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