Prediction of Storm Surge and Risk Assessment of Rakhine Costal Region

May Ei Nandar Soe, Daw Aye Aye Thant, Dr. Kyaw Zaya Htun

Abstract


Rakhine coastal region, western coast of Myanmar, is prone to cyclone and storm surge flooding. The probability of cyclone in Rakhine coast is more than those of any other places of Myanmar coast. That’s why, it is very essential to develop storm surge risk maps for Rakhine state. The study area for numerical simulation covers the latitude 14° to 22° N and longitude 89.8° to 98.1° E. Five historical storm surge heights along the coast are determined both by empirical equation and simulated using Delft 3D numerical model coupling with Delft Dashboard and, compared with observed peak surge. Hazard maps of storm surge are developed by modelling three cyclone scenarios for respective recurrence interval. In this study, population data, housing data and livelihood data of Rakhine State during the period of 2010 are adopted for vulnerability analysis. Vulnerable maps for human and social sector, physical infrastructure sector and production sector are developed by using Analytical Hierarchy Process. Finally, risk maps for population, production, infrastructure and livelihood sector of Rakhine State by village tracts are developed by using ArcGIS 10.3.


Keywords


Rakhine coastal region; Storm surge; Delft 3D model; Hazard map; Vulnerable map; Risk map.

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