Climate Change and Yield Fluctuation of Maize and Sorghum Crops in Arba Minch District, Ethiopia

Assefa Derbew Tegen, Tesema Adamu Deressa

Abstract


For a country like Ethiopia, where agricultural activity is very much linked to the socioeconomic activity of the people, studying the impact of climate variability and change on yield fluctuation is crucial. Therefore, this paper estimated the impact of climate variability and change on crop production in Arba Minch district, Ethiopia; as Agricultural sector in the country provides employment to more than 80% of the population and contributes around 43 % to the overall GDP. Time series data of Temperature and rainfall disintegrated in to 2 crop types were used for this study. Meteorological and yield data for Arba Minch district were gathered from National Meteorological Agency and Central statistical Agency respectively.  Future projections of Temperature and precipitation were made up to 2060 using RCP4.5 & RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Finally, an analysis namely coefficient of variation, correlation coefficient and standardized anomalies have been computed after data quality control has been made. Results showed that negative climate impact (TMax) was recorded in 1993 for maize (the only slightly better correlation computed from the data). In the other years, nevertheless, crop yield anomalies did not attain the levels at which they could be considered as impacted. Extreme reduction and excess of crop production are not associated with rainfall and temperature high/low values. Moreover, the projected TMax, precipitation and TMin are likely to have no significant change for 2040s. Depending on the result obtained in the present study, it is highly recommended that an assessment of the underlying causes of rainfall variability should be made with respect to oceanic and atmospheric synoptic systems such as ENSO, different waves, jets and other disturbances.

Keywords


Climate variability; crop production; RCPs.

Full Text:

PDF

References


. Belay, ‘’ Agricultural extension in Ethiopia: the case of particularly demonstration and training extension system’’ Journal of Rural Development, 28:185-210, 2003

. Central Statistical Agency (CSA), Tables: Southern Peoples, Nations and Nationalities Region, Tables 2.1, 2.4, 2.5, 3.1, 3.2 and 3.4, 2007

. Dixon, J., A. Gulliver, Gibbon. D, ‘’ Farming systems and poverty: improving farmers’ livelihoods in a changing world,’’ Rome and Washington, D.C: FAO and World Bank. Sustainable Development 1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855, 2001

. Edwards-Jones, G. Plassmann, K., York, E.Hounsome, B.; Jones, D. L. and Milà I Canals, L. ‘’Vulnerability of Exporting Nations to the Development of a Carbon Label in the United Kingdom,’’ Environmental Science and Policy, 2009.

. Hare, "Assessment of knowledge on impacts of climate change-contribution to the specification of art. 2 of the UNFCCC: Impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socio-economic systems," 2003

. IPCC, ‘’Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5),’’ Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2013

. Kinde and Sue, ‘’Matching of crop and environment for optimal water use: the case of Ethiopia,’’ Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, Volume 29, Issues 15–18, 2004, Pages 1061-1067, ISSN 1474-7065, 2004

. Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Shahbaz Mushtaq, and Jerry Maroulis, "Greenhouse gas emissions from rice farming inputs: a cross-country assessment, " The Journal of Agricultural Science 147.2: 117-126, 2009.

. Woldeamlak. "Rainfall variability and crop production in Ethiopia: Case study in the Amhara region," Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies. Trondheim, Norway: Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2009

. Tizale, ’’The dynamics of soil degradation and incentives for optional management in Central Highland of Ethiopia’’ PhD Thesis. Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural development. University of Pretoria, South Africa, 2007


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.

Comments on this article

View all comments


 
  
 

 

  


About ASRJETS | Privacy PolicyTerms & Conditions | Contact Us | DisclaimerFAQs 

ASRJETS is published by (GSSRR).