Climate Change and Yield Fluctuation of Maize and Sorghum Crops in Arba Minch District, Ethiopia

Assefa Derbew Tegen, Tesema Adamu Deressa


For a country like Ethiopia, where agricultural activity is very much linked to the socioeconomic activity of the people, studying the impact of climate variability and change on yield fluctuation is crucial. Therefore, this paper estimated the impact of climate variability and change on crop production in Arba Minch district, Ethiopia; as Agricultural sector in the country provides employment to more than 80% of the population and contributes around 43 % to the overall GDP. Time series data of Temperature and rainfall disintegrated in to 2 crop types were used for this study. Meteorological and yield data for Arba Minch district were gathered from National Meteorological Agency and Central statistical Agency respectively.  Future projections of Temperature and precipitation were made up to 2060 using RCP4.5 & RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Finally, an analysis namely coefficient of variation, correlation coefficient and standardized anomalies have been computed after data quality control has been made. Results showed that negative climate impact (TMax) was recorded in 1993 for maize (the only slightly better correlation computed from the data). In the other years, nevertheless, crop yield anomalies did not attain the levels at which they could be considered as impacted. Extreme reduction and excess of crop production are not associated with rainfall and temperature high/low values. Moreover, the projected TMax, precipitation and TMin are likely to have no significant change for 2040s. Depending on the result obtained in the present study, it is highly recommended that an assessment of the underlying causes of rainfall variability should be made with respect to oceanic and atmospheric synoptic systems such as ENSO, different waves, jets and other disturbances.


Climate variability; crop production; RCPs.

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